Afghan Surge, Obama Decision Process, Afghan Decision, Bush Iraq Decision
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Monday December 7, 2009
Pearl Harbor Day
Today's Zinger:
Winning Is A Habit, So Is Losing.
The Morning Briefing:
President Obama made a historic decision to add 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. In March of this year he added 21,000. Zinger looks at how organizations make decisions and the results of those that use their heads (data driven) and those that use their heart (passion) and how that might play out in Afghanistan.
Who Said It?
"The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will."
The Discussion:
Throughout my career, I worked in two distinct types of organizations that rely on very different methods of decision-making. There were those that made decisions based on wisdom, experience and instinct. Then there were those that made decisions based on analysis of hard data and facts. The culture from the Board of Directors and the CEO dictated the approach to decision making.
As someone that received his degrees in quantitative methods, and taught finance and statistics in college, the world of fact based driven decision making comes easily to me. However, over my working career, I also worked in organizations that relied heavily on the experience and feel of situations. I recognized the shortcomings of data driven decisions as well as the shortcomings of making decisions strictly on experience. I also valued what each brought to the situation.
Some of the most outstanding people that I have worked with had, what they described as, “a feel for the cloth.” They knew what to do, not by the numbers, but by the feel of the situation. Some call it gut instinct. I will tell you that the numbers could never disclose what the gut of the executive’s knew to be the right decision.
One of the most important learnings from my experience in these two styles of organizations is the decision-making process that they go through and the results of their decisions. This is a lesson that every executive, every mom, every person can learn from. Organizations that were data driven could easily redirect decisions as new information came in. Many times this information was incorrect, but it caused a shift in strategy or approach and resulted in diminished results. These organizations felt comfort in their decision-making based on data. The organizations that relied on instinct and experience were tenacious. They were clear about their objective. The best organizations were those that were informed by data but not derailed by data. They just knew what to do. They had a “feel for the cloth” but tested their decisions with data along the way.
There was an article published in today’s New York Times that discussed how President Obama made his decision on the surge in Afghanistan. It is based on discussions with faceless people that claim to have been in the room while this process was playing out. (I hate when the media interviews people that claim to be in the know but remain nameless.) The President devoted 25 hours of discussion to the decision process. Here is a link to the New York Times article. I highly recommend it.
President Obama’s decision-making style is in stark contrast to President Bush II. Bush II was driven by the outcome. He knew what he wanted to accomplish. The data along the way pointed him to a different direction, but his Generals and those on the ground assured him that the U.S. had a reasonably good chance to win. Bush made a very difficult decision and it paid off. The United States will extricate itself from Iraq and leave the Iraqi people in control of a country that is a fledgling democracy with a reasonable chance of success.
President Obama made an equally courageous decision this past week. Going against his own party’s wishes, he decided to send additional troops into Afghanistan. He also decided to get out of Afghanistan more quickly than the Generals on the ground would recommend. It will be years before we know if the decision is correct.
What is fascinating to me is the decision process. President Obama was deeply involved in the data, facts and decision-making process. Based on the article, President Obama came off as a college professor facilitating a class to understand the choices of the decision. I do not begrudge him the process he went through, as he has no direct experience, “no feel for the cloth” as to know what to do. If you must make a decision of this magnitude, and you do not put your trust in the people with the most experience, then you have to rely on data and decision trees. My concern for President Obama, and his ability to draw Afghanistan to a successful conclusion, is the high probability that he will be led by data in the future and that data will cause redirection and potentially misdirection. Without the single mindedness and relentless pursuit of the outcome, quantitative decision-makers will alter their strategy as new data comes available, and they will justify their actions and take comfort in the data.
Those that know President Obama will say that he seems distant from the decisions he makes. This was true of the organizations that I worked in that were data driven. The leadership in these organizations seemed to lack a passion for results. They were very proud of their data analysis and decision process versus organizations that had a feel for the cloth and were passionate about their results. Many people will take comfort in President Obama’s thoughtfulness in his decision process. I for one would like to see the passion for a specific outcome that is informed by data, not dictated by data.
Vince Lombardi, the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers, understood how to win. He was passionate. He was focused. Coach Lombardi’s speech, The Habit Of Winning,” has stayed with me all of my life. It has shaped how I have approached life. To paraphrase Coach Lombardi, you must play to win and not play to not lose. It isn’t the smartest guy that will win. It isn’t the strongest that will win. It is the one that has a fierce desire to win and is willing to put his heart and soul on the line. If you can find someone that is smart and has this passion, you have a successful person.
President Obama is smart. He is not passionate. I believe he is playing not to lose. No matter what you may think of President Bush, he was passionate and focused. He was a winner for his Iraq surge decision. I doubt that President Obama will be a winner for his Afghan decision.
Here is a link to one of Coach Lombardi’s speech, The Habit Of Winning. I hope you will take a moment to read this powerful speech.
Who Said It?
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will.
Vince Lombardi
Past Coach
Green Bay Packers
Today's ZingerToon:
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articles can be found in the archives that are stored by month. These
are found at the bottom of the purple sidebar. Here is a list of the
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Part I: Implications of a Radical Change in Life Expectancy
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You can access these and other articles at www.ZingerKing.com
Posted by ZK at 12/6/2009 11:36 AM 
Categories: Obama Administration
Tags: Surge Obama Decision Process Bush Decision Process Obama Afghan Decision Iraq Surge Afghan Surge
Categories: Obama Administration
Tags: Surge Obama Decision Process Bush Decision Process Obama Afghan Decision Iraq Surge Afghan Surge
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