Obama's Clintonesque Moments, Democratic Health Care Proposal, ABC Health Care Special.

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Today’s Zinger:

It’s Not What You Say, It's What You Do



The Morning Briefing:

President Obama is a gifted orator.   I have been listening to several of President Obama’s recent speeches, including his inauguration, stimulus bill discussion and now the health care discussion that appeared on ABC last night.  There are some similarities in his speeches and writings. Barack Obama avoids conflict and tries to negotiate from the center of arguments.  It is almost like he wants to be a peacemaker through his words and his personality, however he clearly has an agenda that often is shrouded in his speeches.  Barack Obama speaks in platitudes.  His lofty language and philosophical ideals is the centerpiece of his speeches. Barack Obama sounds steadfast and resolute in his ideals and proclamations, but shows that his actions are quite different.

To really understand President Obama you must listen carefully to what he says and connect the dots.  President Clinton, a lawyer, taught us that if you restrict your conversation, answer questions in a
disconnected way and define your own terms, you can honestly respond to questions, yet not fully answer any question in terms of the intent of the question.  This has become known as Clintonesque. 
President Obama, also a lawyer, has many of these same attributes. Its not what he says, rather what he actually does that causes many to question,"who is this President".         
                                          


The Discussion:

Last night, I listened carefully to President Obama discuss the health care insurance proposal.  He spoke to who will be covered under a government option of health care, if that is what is ultimately legislated, and how we will pay for it.  Up to this time we have heard candidate Obama say every American should receive the same health insurance that members of Congress receive.  He has also said that only Americans with incomes over $200,000 would have to pay additional taxes. 

Last night was quite different.  The health care insurance proposal clearly states that Congress will keep their plan and it will be separate.  President Obama said that there are such few numbers of Congressmen and women that keeping it separate is better.  The bill also states that members of unions will be exempt from the tax implications of the health care bill.  There were a number of critical elements of the health insurance bill that were avoided (who decides protocol of care, how to handle care which may be end of life, how much will be subsidized, how will illegal immigrants be handled and where is all the money coming from).  There are a lot of unanswered questions, but you would never know it listening to President Obama speak about the need to pass this bill quickly.

Which brings me to the topic of taxation.  President Obama has said that he will raise taxes on the top incomes (2-3%) and bring the rate back to that of President Clinton.  Last night I think I caught the Clintonesque moment.  President Obama has said that he believes that an additional $300 billion can be raised to offset some of the the health care cost through limiting the deductions of the wealthy.  As Zinger has said in the past, this administration will look for “stealth taxation” and I think they have found it.

According to President Obama, top wage earners can expect their taxes to increase to the rates in effect at the time of President Clinton (approx a 10% increase on incremental income).  They can also expect to pay higher taxes due to loss of deductions based on what he said last night in his response to how to pay for health care.  Net deductions are typically 7-10% of income at the higher income levels according to the Tax Foundation.  Capping deductions will increase taxes by an additional 4-5%.  Additionally, the government is looking to increase product based taxes and service taxes.  The combined total of these tax increases will surely lead to a 15-20% overall increase in taxes on the top incomes.  This at a time when our economy remains weak with the future prospects looking less promising.

The top 1% of tax filers pay 40% of all income taxes to the government.  The top 5% pay 60% of all taxes and the top 20% pay 80% of all taxes.  It is pretty easy for the majority, which pays little to no taxes, to cram down higher taxes on the wealthy with no political liability to the politician that supports this policy.  This is exactly what FDR did in 1932.  The wealthy (which represent about 2-5% of the U.S. population) have insufficient voting power to influence legislation.  Unless they revolt…


The Conclusion:
    

Reform of health care is desperately needed in our country, however this proposal seems to pay off the unions, protect Congress and proposes legislation with no real answers to solve some of the most difficult health care issues.  We cannot afford another 1,000 page legislative proposal, like the stimulus bill, that is marbled with fat.  We better slow down and make decisions that are well understood prior to signing one of the largest social programs ever undertaken.  I'm sure President Obama feels he must pass something while his popularity is high and the nation is still in a daze over the economy and speed by which recent bills were passed by Congress.

On Monday, Zinger will look at the question; “how much can you tax the wealthy and what are the implications?"  I think you will be surprised at what the research shows and what a revolt by the wealthy might look like.  In the meantime, listen closely to President Obama; I believe there will be more Clintonesque moments coming.  There is too much conflict between policy, cost, economic growth and taxes that will need to be hidden if this agenda is to continue.  It all just doesn't add up, as evidenced in the recent Congressional Budget Office Reports on progress of the budget and national debt.  Here is a link to the CBO report on the long-term outlook of the budget that was just released this week. CBO Budget Outlook 6/2009.

See you Monday.

Zinger

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