Reprise: Healthcare Crisis, Healthcare Legislation, Government Role In Healthcare Reform, Healthcare Reform

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Wed/Thurs   June 17,18  2009


Today’s Zinger:

Healthcare Just Made Me Sicker

The Morning Briefing:


Monday's ZingerKing looked at the administration's proposal for healthcare reform.  Zinger fully supports reform of the healthcare system.  While the vast majority of Americans with healthcare are satisfied with their insurance, the system is too costly, establishes barriers to those with preexisting conditions and is too complex.  The system also fails to provide medical outcomes as good as those experienced in other countries with a cost 50% lower.

On Tuesday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a memo sent to the head of the Congressional health care team, Senator Ted Kennedy, outlining additional information relative to the proposed system.  As they say, the devil is in the details and these details have horns. 

The cost of the proposal is far above what was originally discussed.  The proposed system will provide coverage to an additional 15 million of the 45-50 million uninsured and the proposal does not deal with the low income resident costs through expanded Medicaid.  Additionally, it may create additional uninsured as employers will not offer alternative programs and employees may opt out of the system.

With the President looking for legislation by August, we will see another large and expensive bill rushed through Congress with no time to read or react.  The difference is this has a direct impact on every resident and requires more than a few weeks to consider.



The Discussion:

Any time we make a radical change to a process there are bound to be problems.  The Medicare drug program was assailed for the first year as a failure.  As the complexity was reduced and the participants better understood the process, the program is now viewed as a success by the participants but not by all politicians.  The process improved and participants received better coverage, but the cost of the program was far greater than anticipated.  We are now looking at a program that is far more complex, affects every resident in the United States and starts with a trillion dollar price tag.  We should expect many problems. These problems should not dissuade us from taking on the challenge.  Reform of health care is required for the financial stability of the nation and better medical outcomes.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just completed their analysis of the impact of the legislation on the non-insured.  Here is a link to the report.   CBO Healthcare Analysis

Here are a few highlights:
  1. The ten year estimate does not represent ten years of costs.  The system will be state based and the first states offering the new health exchange are expected to do so by 2012 and ramp up through all states by 2014.  Therefore, the trillion dollar price tag represents a six year cost.
  2. The number of non-insured, non-elderly would decline to 36 or 37 million from 45 million today.  That is a 10 million person decrease. 
  3. One-third of these (3-4 million) will be "unauthorized immigrants" (you've got to love the new vocabulary that Washington has adopted)
  4. Other "unauthorized immigrants" are eligible for Medicaid and will be handled by additional costs through that program; which are not considered in this bill.
  5. Subsidy per person is estimated at $5,000 rising to $6,000 in 2017

The government has not finalized how to pay for the added cost of the program, however, since 40% of Americans pay no taxes and 20% of Americans pay 80% of the tax revenues collected, the cost will certainly be shouldered by the top 20% of wage earners. 

The new system will not be in effect until the administration has completed their term in office.  We will not know if the system is successful for years.  The administration is looking for the program to be self funding but it will take many years to reach this potential.

The Conclusion:

As the President rushes to implement a health care reform bill, I have to ask... is this another bill driven through Congress like the stimulus package?  That package was anything but stimulative to the economy.  It appears that the administration sees success in the signing of the bill.  I am sure the fact that we have "health care reform" will be used for campaigning for a second term.  But the real success or failure, the real cost, the real health implications  will not be known for years.  If the health care reform bill is as successful as the stimulus bill I suggest we slow down and get it right.  A signed bill is not success. 

Zinger believes in health care reform but experience tells me we need a process for implementing any large scale change that is piloted in a controlled situation then rolled out and modified based on the successes and failures.  The big bang theory usually ends up with a big bang.  This President is trying to create a big bang through legislation.

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